Hi,
I was talking to a friend recently about their son’s planned knee surgery, and her concerns about the risks involved.
She had many worries—surgical safety, potential damage to the growth plate, recovery time, and infection risk.
I helped her look into the likelihood of each, searching the latest data and literature reviews I could find.
What would happen if he didn’t get the operation? Was it safer to wait and see?
Ultimately, one thing became clear; there is no risk-free option.
The active choice of surgery seemed fraught with hazards to her, the counter-option of doing nothing presumably being safer.
But doing nothing meant being unable to play football, knee instability, possible later arthritis, and the psychological toll all of that would take.
In medicine and life, inaction carries consequences - even the best case scenario is subject to entropy.
The question shouldn’t be which is the least risky option.
Rather, which set of risks are most acceptable to me?
Simon Carley speaks about the ‘Goldilocks moments’ in healthcare, balancing urgency with uncertainty.
If we wait until we have all the information we want before making a decision, the patient might die. If we act too early, we may be doing so in error. To act or wait both entail risks.
Every single treatment and decision in medicine is yoked with hazard of one kind or another.
But the idea is to tip the risk:benefit scales so far in your favour that the decision makes sense, risks included.
There’s no risk-free option, only the ability to choose between them.
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